Assassination Lebanon!

Was it not just a few days ago where I posted on this blog, the political destabilization occuring in Lebanon? A political assassiation only compounds those fears. Sure you have already heard the news, but I would like to point to an interesting analysis made by Zvi Barel at Haaretz. He says that Syria would not really want to do an assassination like this, as it would seriously damage their international standing (which is barely any) at a time when they are trying to rehabilitate it. Instead, point to non other than our friends in the south, Hizballah. But then again, I guess you can draw a line from Hizballah to Syria. Meh, in any case this only helps Syria in its attempts to……..control Lebanon.

Pretty good aim though…must have been up close.

No more Qassam fire?

I’ve heard that many times before! The times certainly are dire when even getting a cease fire between Israel and the Palestinian factions proves difficult.

Hamas said today that it is willing to cease Qassam fire, in pursuit of a mutual cease fire between it, the Palestinian factions, and Israel. This is imperative. A cease fire must be established as soon as possible, in order for two pressing issues to be dealt with immediately:

(1) The release of Pvt. Gilad Shalit, which will almost likely happen within the context of a prisoner exchange;

(2) The formation of a Palestinian unity government, which has been going on now for almost eleven months! This, of course, is entirely contingent on the Palestinians…

Meanwhile, fighting continues in the Gaza Strip. Don’t you just love the car swarmings after a missile strikes a terrorists’ car in Gaza? Here is a hint of the sarcasm I love to let loose….

What’s to come here at To Spur Debate

If you are a first time visiter to To Spur Debate, please look around and welcome! Stay tuned for this blog, as I will be updating it almost every day with news and analysis of Israel, the Arab world, and international affairs.
A main purpose of this blog, as per the title, is to spur debate. Please use the comments section of each post to voice your opinion on a question posed or on the post itself. And reply to others as well!

In the near future, expect a series of analysis on international affairs written by myself and invited guest authors. Included will be series on Israeli society (both the good and bad), issues of identity, Pro/Con on a stated question, and much more. If you have written or would like to write a piece and want it posted here, you may do so by posting it in the comments.

Kissinger: Victory impossible in Iraq

Before I report on what Kissinger has said today, I want to make something abundantly clear: there is a civil war in Iraq. When the main stream media calls what is happening in Iraq today “chaos”, “violence”, or whatever, its all simply washing over what has been the truth for months now. Iraq is in civil war mode. Shiites and Sunnis are killing each other non-stop, and to be honest, I only see it getting worse. Fifty people were killed today in Iraq. Fifty! I remember years ago when just a few people were killed in an Iraqi terror attack, it was huge news. Now, fifty doesn’t even warrant a mention. That’s how deep the civil war has gotten.

The New York Times wrote today about Henry Kissinger’s view on the war in Iraq, and I post it because it very much sums up the quandry of the situation. Because while he has resigned himself to now saying the war is, basically, a lost cause for the US -that victory is impossible- he still says any quick withdrawal will further compound the problem and be worse for the US. So does he advocate full withdraw, ‘stay the course’, or something else? Go and read it.

Remember that Kissinger was the lead for extracating the US from Vietnam, and did so partly by negotiating with the North Vietnamese. In Iraq, Kissinger has advocated speaking directly with Iran and Syria if the US is to withdraw. I guess we will have to wait for the Iraq Study Group report to be released, but leaks have suggested it too will say just that: talk directly with Iran and Syria over the matter.

So, what do you think? Should the US speak directly with Syria and Iran in regards to the situation in Iraq? Please comment, share you thoughts and opinions, be controversial!

Hezballah Re-arms in Lebanon

All under the ever-so watchful eyes of the UNIFIL, it has been reported by Israeli intelligence that Hezballah has rearmed in Lebanon- to a level higher than before the war! What exactly did they rearm with is not known, but can be reliably assumed that Katyushas have been replenished. More worrying for Israel is the possibility that Hezballah has reaquired long range missiles from Iran, capable of striking Tel Aviv. Israel effectively destroyed almost all of those missiles in the first days of the war. Read this important report, which no big news media really reported.

And so while Hezballah has rearmed and equiped itself for another fight- some in Israel suggest by early next summer- what does UNIFIL report for us today? Ohhh, the usual finger pointing at Israel. The French are at it again, this time saying they are ‘preparing’ their anti-aircraft batteries to engage any Israeli Air Force jets from overflying Lebanon. And why are they flying over Lebanon? To gather important intel on the above stated problem- Hezballah rearming!

I also gotta ask: why the hell do French forces need anti-aircraft weapons for anyway?! Are they going to be shooting down Hezballah aircraft? Of course not, they have none. Worst, I fear that if UNIFIL decides one day, in a surprise move, to all of the sudden withdraw (which could happen if they feared Israel and Hezballah would go to war again), then the AA weapons can easily fall into the hands of Hezballah.

Spiked vokda in the Kremlin…Russia’s ways with Iran

No country dumbfounds me more than Russia. Why on earth are they so insistent on allowing Iran ample time to enrich their Urianium and stay steadfast against any sanctions, or even threat of sanctions? It’s no wonder to me that while Russia should be a country fit for rational strategic objectives (knowing its experience in the Cold War), it has come down to self-interest which no propels Russian foreign policy. Ahhh yes, the almighty dollar. And so while Russia continues its trade with Iran and helps build Iran its nuclear power plant, a rational-strategic foreign policy is being shelved.

Just today, Russia once again has reiterated its calls for the IAEA, the toothless nuclear agency of the UN, to lead the negotiations to end the nuclear standoff with Iran. Here is the link. Once again, Russia continues to dumbfound me. Iran has already rebuffed Russia in the negotiations. Remember the Russian proposal to syphon off all the spent nuclear fuel to Russia, so Iran could not get their hands on the spent fuel to make a bomb? Yea,and what did Iran do with that offer? They said naaaaaaaaaah. We don’t like it. We want to keep our nuclear fuel. Because the only purpose of spent nuclear fuel is nuclear bombs. Mmmmm, nuclear bombs.

Why on earth are they not alarmed over the prospect of revolutionary Islamic Iran possessing nuclear weapons? Do they not realize that such a scenerio will impact Russia directly? Do they not see that Iranian nukes can be pointed directly at Moscow? Maybe the vodka has been spiked in the Kremlin. Or maybe the surge of capitalism in Russia has diluted the minds of Russian leaders, who are now out to seek the almighty dollar ahead of their own vital strategic security.

Russia, you are nothing but confusing.

Hezballah plans Lebanese offensive

I found an interesting article written by a known scholar on Lebanese affairs regarding the current leadup by Hezballah to launch an offensive in the country, for the purpose of toppling the Seniora government. Take a look at it.

In other words, a new civil war in Lebanon- crack out the champagne! Weelllll, not really. Because unlike the civil war before in Lebanon, this alignment of the Middle East today is far different, most notable in regards to Iran. Hezballah today is as strong as it has ever been (well maybe on July 12 it was stronger than today because it decided in a very stupid way to start a war with Israel). And with a very strong Hezballah supplied by Iran via Syria, and a very weak central government and measly Lebanese army, I fear Hezballah can easily win.

But we can always count on the French peacekeepers in the south to bring things in order!

So what will happen in the land of ceders? I believe strongly that unfortunately, the Lebanese will once again be thrusted into a civil war that will pit the forces of democracy and independence against those who seek to subjugate the country to the wishes and desires of Syria and Iran. And while this will undeniably be alligned along sectarian divisions, the broader conflict over the very direction Lebanon will face (East towards Syria/Iran or West towards, well, the West) will be far more crucial. I guess that’s the consequence of allowing a vile, sectarian armed militia group whose overlords sit in Tehran to grow and build up arms for years in fully one third of your country, creating its own mini state where it can provoke open hostilities with other countries and fully block the progress your country has made towards normality. Can someone say, Hezballah?

“Let the Battle for Lebanon begin”

Let’s try this for a first post, for this blog that I am confident will be stellar.

A part of the goals of this blog is to bring to the fore developments from the Arab world to my, what I hope will be, largely Israeli/Jewish audience. I have found that blogs coming out of the Arab world are a great source of information in light of restricted media in those countries and lack of information coming from Western mainstream media. It also helps when the Arab blogs themselves are by and large advocating for greater media freedom and freedom of speech.

And so as if Lebanon has not been enough in the news this past year, after the war between it and Israel, now the ramifications of allowing the armed group Hezballah free reign are coming to the surface. I found this very interesting post on a blog titled “From Beirut to the Beltway”. Little known outside of Lebanon, a movement calling itself the March 14 movement has declared in a communique, simply, that Hezballah is fermenting a move by Syria to regain its control over Lebanon, and to topple the ‘legitimate authority’ of the Lebanese government. In other words, what we have already known all this time.

Go ahead and read the full entry.

And please, go ahead and leave a comment on this link. One of the main purposes of this blog, as per the title, is to spur debate. To which I then ask, “Do you think Hezballah will ever fully be confronted by the Lebanese government? Will Hezballah be forced to give up its weaponry?”

First post test

This is a test for the first post for my new blog, To Spur Debate.